NFL PLAY BY PLAY DATA SERIES
The work of the AWS Machine Learning Solutions Lab led by Priya Ponnapalli, senior manager, applied science, AWS, resulted in development of the Next Gen Stats Decision Guide, which is built on a series of machine-learning models using Amazon SageMaker.Īccording to the league, the decision equation focuses on two main components: win probability, which attempts to quantify how much the game’s final outcome will change in the event of each play, and conversion probability, which quantifies the likelihood of the offense’s converting on the two-point conversion or fourth-down play at hand. The data in the Next Gen Stats Decision Guide allows them to use hard probabilities rooted in historical data to give context to some of the most debated moments in the game before they happen.Īccording to Helmrich, the partnership with AWS has been the catalyst for taking the NFL Next Gen Stats concept to the next level. The deeper that tool kit becomes, the more people you can help.”ĭata of this nature is already proving valuable to broadcasters. We want to develop many statistics and get as much good information out of the game to benefit coaches, players, fans - everyone top to bottom.
Some of those things, we believe, still have merit and add value, but one of the key tenets of Next Gen has always been that this technology can help everyone. When we were first getting started, we were measuring things like yards covered, speed, and who is on the field. “Machine learning has allowed us to take statistics to the next level. “Next Gen Stats has come a long way,” says Josh Helmrich, director, strategy and business development, NFL. This kind of fourth-down–conversion data, along with similar metrics around whether it’s the right time to go for a two-point conversion, is a key element of the latest offering from the NFL Next Gen Stats team: the Next Gen Stats Decision Guide powered by AWS. In addition, the numbers gave Baltimore a 75% chance of converting the yardage necessary to pick up the first down in that specific play. The latest data from NFL Next Gen Stats would agree.Īccording to Next Gen Stats, a program developed internally by the league in 2016 with tracking-tech-provider Zebra Technologies and running on Amazon Web Services (AWS) infrastructure, going for it in that spot of the game was the preferred call for the Ravens by a difference of 24% in win-probability value vs. It was an aggressive call - one viewed by many, though, as a bit of a no-brainer. Perhaps the highlight of a raucous Week 2 in the NFL came late on Sunday evening when Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson lunged across the marker on a fourth-and-1 to seal a statement win over the defending AFC Champion Kansas City Chiefs.
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